Friday, May 9, 2008

It's Over, Apparently

I think I'm missing something. What recently changed in the Democratic primary contest? All that happened Tuesday was a continuation of what was already happening. What we'd been seeing was that states that favored Obama voted for him big and states that Clinton once had big leads in were starting to change their minds and she was losing ground in them, even if she hung on to win. That's what happened in North Carolina and Indiana. But now we get this:

Rasumussen will stop including Clinton in its polling reports.

Time magazine says that Clinton is done.

John Edwards effectively endorsed Obama. He publicly said he voted for Obama. That's as close to an endorsement you can get without saying the actual words.

Obama has taken the lead in superdelegates. We knew this was coming, but it officially happened.

Now I agree that it is over for Clinton and has been for a while, but why did we get such a big shift in the last few days? I'm not sure I understand it, since nothing really changed on Tuesday, we're exactly where we were on Monday.

The upshot, according to Chris Bowers is:

Obama will never fall behind in any overall delegate count, ever again. Obama will be ahead of Clinton is delegates even if Florida is seated as is, and even if Obama gets zero delegates from Michigan, and even if Obama fails to net anymore superdelegates. Polling conducted before Indiana and North Carolina projected Clinton to net 31 pledged delegates from the remaining six contests. However, Democratic Convention Watch projects Obama ahead by 37.5 delegates even if Florida is seated based on January 29thth results, and even if Obama receives zero delegates from Michigan. In other words, there is no conceivable delegate count under which Clinton will ever be ahead, ever again.

Clinton supporters have to make a decision really quickly. Do they do what's best for their country or they take their toys and go home because they couldn't win. Anyone who doesn't do the former should refrain from ever referring to themselves as a progressive, liberal or Democrat again. Now, let's go out and make sure John McCain loses in November.

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