The Road to the White House

What are Florida bloggers saying about the presidential race? Here are the top 5 posts from yesterday...

1. Tampa Bay Blue - Hillary Clinton Carrying the Hopes and Dreams of Millions of Women

2. Eye on Miami (gimleteye) - For president, reject the haters...

3. St. Petersblog - Crist for VP, get him the fuck out of FL.

4. Betty Cracker - Unsolicited advice for the Obama campaign.

5. Morning Martini - Consider the Source.

Why Did Obama Win?

A round-up of the analysis of the outcome of the Democratic primary...

Jack and Jill Politics - How Obama Won: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

Jack and Jill Politics - How Obama Won: 50 State Strategy.

Daily Kos - Why Clinton Lost: The Nutcracker.

techPresident - Obama's Organization, and the Future of American Politics.

Daily Kos - Why Clinton Lost: The Obama Express.

Daily Kos - Why Clinton Lost: She Fought the Last War, With the Wrong Generals, and Not Enough of an Army.

Daily Kos - Why Clinton Lost (And Why Obama Just May Win Big In November).

Jack and Jill Politics - How Obama Won: That $10,000/year job pays dividends.

Daily Kos - Why Clinton Lost: Too Soon a Bulldog.

MyDD - Barack Obama's 50-State Campaign.

Daily Kos - Why Clinton Lost: She didn't channel supporter passion.

Seminole County Democrats - Why Clinton lost, just in case the editors miss.

Truman's Conscience - Why Clinton Lost.

There Is A Difference

While it is obvious that Obama is not as progressive as many of us are, he is certainly a progressive. He has a lifetime Progressive Punch (http://www.progressivepunch.org/) score of 88.43%. That means, regardless of image, rhetoric or any of that other nonsense, he votes in the more progressive direction 88.43% of the time. How does that compare? Liberal stalwart Russ Feingold has an 89.67%. Hillary Clinton is 90.99%. So, the huge difference between Clinton and Obama is 2.5%. That's it. And this is not based on an individual vote or even a few votes, this is the most comprehensive voting analysis I've ever seen. John McCain has a progressive punch score of 13.9%. There is a clear difference between Obama and McCain. There is little to no difference, policy-wise, between Clinton and Obama. Our goals should be:

a. Get Barack Obama into the White House
b. Make Barack Obama more progressive

I'm not sure what the rest of the conversation is even about.

It's Official -- Clinton Is Out

The official announcement will be Saturday, but this is the e-mail she just sent out:

I wanted you to be one of the first to know: on Saturday, I will hold an event in Washington D.C. to thank everyone who has supported my campaign. Over the course of the last 16 months, I have been privileged and touched to witness the incredible dedication and sacrifice of so many people working for our campaign. Every minute you put into helping us win, every dollar you gave to keep up the fight meant more to me than I can ever possibly tell you.

On Saturday, I will extend my congratulations to Senator Obama and my support for his candidacy. This has been a long and hard-fought campaign, but as I have always said, my differences with Senator Obama are small compared to the differences we have with Senator McCain and the Republicans.

I have said throughout the campaign that I would strongly support Senator Obama if he were the Democratic Party's nominee, and I intend to deliver on that promise.

When I decided to run for president, I knew exactly why I was getting into this race: to work hard every day for the millions of Americans who need a voice in the White House.

I made you -- and everyone who supported me -- a promise: to stand up for our shared values and to never back down. I'm going to keep that promise today, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I will be speaking on Saturday about how together we can rally the party behind Senator Obama. The stakes are too high and the task before us too important to do otherwise.

I know as I continue my lifelong work for a stronger America and a better world, I will turn to you for the support, the strength, and the commitment that you have shown me in the past 16 months. And I will always keep faith with the issues and causes that are important to you.

In the past few days, you have shown that support once again with hundreds of thousands of messages to the campaign, and again, I am touched by your thoughtfulness and kindness.

I can never possibly express my gratitude, so let me say simply, thank you.

Sincerely,
Hillary

I want to congratulate Clinton on a hard-fought campaign and thank her for her service.

Now it's time to listen to what she says and rally behind Barack Obama in order to keep John McCain (Bush III) out of the White House and begin the steps towards American moving in the right direction again.

Florida Presidential Roundup

The latest from Florida bloggers on the 2008 presidential election.

Betty Cracker - McMeltdown.

BlueHerald 2.0 - Campaign Workers and Racism.

Ybor City Stogie - Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio Endorses Obama.

Florida Progressive Coalition - Obama Can Win Florida.

Pensito Review (Jon Ponder) - Obama Floats Punishment for Florida: Cut Delegation in Half.

MyDD - Florida & May 31st.

Blast Off! - Obama's south Florida challenge. Also see his Obamarama coverage.

Ron Levitt - Obama, Clinton, McCain Descend On FL, Despite Delegate Mess.

Jack and Jill Politics - Hillary, The Susan B. Anthony, John Brown And Fannie Lou Hamer Of The Florida Primary?

Eye on Miami (gimleteye) - Stages of Grief and The Hillary Vacuum.

Miami-Dade Dems - Watch out for more of this: Republicans twist reality.

Talk to Me - Space and the Senator.

litbrit - A Sunny Thing Happened Today at the Forum.

MyDD - Next Up: MI & FL.

Incertus (Brian) - Enough already.

Interstate4Jamming2 - Obama Attract Revivial Crowd, But Not As Many As Predicted.

Betty Cracker - Obama in Tampa.

Blast Off! - We get even more e-mail.

Blast Off! - We get more e-mail.

Incertus (Brian) - What's the number?

Eye on Miami (gimleteye) - The Presidential Campaign: Hialeah or Havana?

The O-Train Station - The O-Train is proud to welcome Senator Barack Obama back to Florida!

Florida Progressive Coalition (Benjamin Kirby) - Obama In Tampa Today.

Incertus (Brian) - Who's the bigger draw?

Smashed Frog - Barack Obama: Within Reach.

Daily Kos - Florida still tough for Obama.

Bloggy Bayou - No, of course you aren't!

Tampa Bay Blue - Democrats Should Be More Democratic and Less Sexist.

Tampa Bay Blue - The Democratic Party Must Count Florida's Votes.

Tampa's Back Door Ways... - crist and mccain sittin in a tree.

Tampa's Back Door Ways... - Eric Deggans Unabashed Sexist Hillary Basher.

Politics1 - Friday News Update.

Obama Can Win Florida

This was originally posted as a comment to a different thread elsewhere, but I put a lot of thought into it, and I thought it was worth more than a comment.

I've lived in the Panhandle my whole life and it's not nearly as red as people seem to think. The majority in those counties are conservative, but they all have sizeable minority populations and progressive subcultures. He'll certainly win (and win big) in Leon, Gadsden and Jefferson (might win Wakulla as well) and could get as high as 40% in much of the rest of the Panhandle.

As for the rest of the state, there is a pretty significant Democratic voter registration advantage. Obama will win 80-90% of those Dems, the majority of independents, and 5-10% of Republicans. And keep in mind you'll see probably a 10-15% in black voter turnout and you might see a slight bump in Hispanic turnout -- and keep in mind Cubans are no longer the majority of Hispanics in Florida and Republicans are losing ground swiftly amongst Cubans anyway.

Here's how I think Obama wins Florida:

95%+ plus of black vote
65% of female vote
60-70% of non-Cuban Hispanic vote
40-60% of Cuban vote
60-70% of urban professional vote
90%+ of environmental vote
5-10% of Republican vote
40-60% of working class vote
60-70% of youth vote
5-10% of religious conservative vote
55-65% of independents

And keep in mind, all of the pro-Obama constituencies will have increased turnout (some of them significantly so, such as African-Americans and youth), while most of the anti-Obama constituencies will have decreased turnout. This invalidates any of the current models that are being used to predict the vote.

That being said, there is little evidence that Obama has much problem with white working class voters. Those arguments are largely based on Obama's matchup with Clinton. But he won't be facing Clinton in the general, he'll be facing McCain. And Obama and Clinton have a basically identical voting record on issues important to working class voters. McCain has a horrible track record. Obama will do fine with this group, even though he doesn't particularly need to.

It's Over, Apparently

I think I'm missing something. What recently changed in the Democratic primary contest? All that happened Tuesday was a continuation of what was already happening. What we'd been seeing was that states that favored Obama voted for him big and states that Clinton once had big leads in were starting to change their minds and she was losing ground in them, even if she hung on to win. That's what happened in North Carolina and Indiana. But now we get this:

Rasumussen will stop including Clinton in its polling reports.

Time magazine says that Clinton is done.

John Edwards effectively endorsed Obama. He publicly said he voted for Obama. That's as close to an endorsement you can get without saying the actual words.

Obama has taken the lead in superdelegates. We knew this was coming, but it officially happened.

Now I agree that it is over for Clinton and has been for a while, but why did we get such a big shift in the last few days? I'm not sure I understand it, since nothing really changed on Tuesday, we're exactly where we were on Monday.

The upshot, according to Chris Bowers is:

Obama will never fall behind in any overall delegate count, ever again. Obama will be ahead of Clinton is delegates even if Florida is seated as is, and even if Obama gets zero delegates from Michigan, and even if Obama fails to net anymore superdelegates. Polling conducted before Indiana and North Carolina projected Clinton to net 31 pledged delegates from the remaining six contests. However, Democratic Convention Watch projects Obama ahead by 37.5 delegates even if Florida is seated based on January 29thth results, and even if Obama receives zero delegates from Michigan. In other words, there is no conceivable delegate count under which Clinton will ever be ahead, ever again.

Clinton supporters have to make a decision really quickly. Do they do what's best for their country or they take their toys and go home because they couldn't win. Anyone who doesn't do the former should refrain from ever referring to themselves as a progressive, liberal or Democrat again. Now, let's go out and make sure John McCain loses in November.

Is McCain Presidential? Survey Says: No

From Firedoglake:

...Mr McCain's policies would not be so worrying were it not for his notorious quickness to fury in the face of perceived insults to himself or his country. Even Thad Cochran, a fellow Republican senator, has said: "I certainly know no other president since I've been here who's had a temperament like that."

...

In interviews with Salon this week, several experienced military officers said McCain draws mixed reviews among military leaders, and they expressed serious doubts about whether McCain has the right temperament to be the next president and commander in chief. Some expressed more confidence in Obama, citing his temperament as an asset.

It is not difficult in Washington to find high-level military officials who have had close encounters with John McCain's temper, and who find it worrisome .....the concern is that McCain has, at times, come across as out of control. It is difficult to find current or former officers willing to describe those encounters in detail on the record. That's because, by and large, those officers admire McCain. But that doesn't mean they want his finger on the proverbial button, and they are supporting Clinton or Obama instead.

...

"I like McCain. I respect McCain. But I am a little worried by his knee-jerk response factor," said retired Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton, who was in charge of training the Iraqi military from 2003 to 2004 and is now campaigning for Clinton. "I think it is a little scary. I think this guy's first reactions are not necessarily the best reactions. I believe that he acts on impulse."

A Run-off?

An FDP e-mail from earlier tonight floated the idea of a run-off in Florida between the top two finishers in Florida. This is definitely a idea worth considering. We have a long historical precedent with run-off primaries in Florida. It allows full participation for both candidates. It allows for full participation of the voters. It is within the rules as far as I can tell. It doesn't send the message that the January 29 vote was meaningless. The only concern, it seems is the cost. Rubio said the legislature won't pay for it. The DNC doesn't appear to have the money. Who will pay? My suggestion? Obama and Clinton raised a combined $85 million in February compared to a mere $12 million for McCain. This is primary money. What better way to spend it than to fund a run-off in Florida (and something for Michigan as well, although it couldn't be a run-off)? What better way to make it up to the voters of Florida and signal McCain that Florida is on the table.

You're welcome.

(The Spencerian has the full text of the e-mail).

Media Coverage Atrocious

I've been watching CNN tonight for the news on the election and have read about coverage of MSNBC as well (we won't even get into Fox), and what I have to say is that most of the coverage borders on idiocy. The most common claims are:

1. Clinton won a "dramatic" win in Ohio.

2. McCain won a "dramatic" and "historic" victory in the Republican race.

3. The numbers don't matter.

4. Clinton has momentum, regardless of what else happens tonight.

5. Clinton has a legitimate shot to win the nomination.

6. The fact that McCain's race is over now and the Democrats are moving forward helps the Republicans in the general election and hurts the Democrats.

7. Obama can't close the deal because he can't win the big states.

Each of these claims is demonstrably false.

1. The word "dramatic" should be reserved for things that include some drama. Winning a state where you were ahead by 20 points two weeks ago, ahead by 10 points yesterday and gaining ground in the latest polls does not qualify as dramatic.

2. McCain won when Romney dropped out of the race. There is nothing historic about winning a race against someone who was polling in the 30s. It is historic, I guess, in the way that some history books include all major party nominees, but beyond that, this isn't a particularly notable victory. It's mildly interesting because of how bad McCain's early campaign was. Regardless of what the TV people seem to think, though, this isn't a good sign for McCain.

3. This is clear lunacy. The numbers (meaning the delegates) are ALL that matters. Using Slate's handy delegate counter, after tonight's results, if Clinton wins 60% of the popular vote in every remaining state (something that is impossible), she would still lose the pledged delegate race. Period. And that's giving Clinton the benefit of the doubt in Texas, something that she doesn't seem to deserve, since the primary numbers are a toss-up and the caucus numbers (although early), favor Obama (as do anecdotal reports from the caucus sites). And keep in mind, because of the complicated procedures through which delegates are selected, it's still possible Obama could come away with a delegate victory in Ohio.

4. If Clinton loses Texas, she has no momentum. She was supposed to win Ohio and Texas and if she loses one of those, she doesn't have any momentum. Sure, she stopped Obama's win streak, but nobody thought he'd win 100% of the remaining states, so that means nothing.

5. Again, if she wins Texas, 60% of the vote in every remaining state would still be a loss in the pledged delegates. The chances of the superdelegates going against the will of the people seems slim. Barring a major Obama scandal, Clinton is done. Obama has a big lead, not because his delegate number is so much higher than Clinton's, but because the states remaining are NOT winner-take-all, and a second place finish in pretty much any state still gets you a high number of delegates. A big win in a big state gets you only a couple dozen more delegates. Not enough.

6. From now until the end of the Democratic race, Clinton and Obama get nonstop free coverage. McCain doesn't. The Democrats get to go on TV every day and talk about hope and how bad Republicans are and change and all that. McCain gets painted as Bush III and he has no one to focus on. This is a huge boost for the Democrats. Remember the old adage -- there is no bad press? It's almost true. The only bad press is no press. McCain will be getting a whole lot of "no press" in the coming weeks, maybe months. Also, keep in mind that this race started early (In 1992, Clinton didn't lock up the nomination until June), so it'll end early and there will be more than enough time to focus on McCain.

7. The big-state argument is a myth. Daily Kos:

2 voted but there was no campaign: MI and FL

5 haven't voted yet: TX, OH, PA, IN, and NC

5 have voted for Obama: IL, WA, MO, VA, and GA

and 5 have voted for Clinton: CA, NY, NJ, MA, and TN

Two of these states will go towards a candidate tonight and Obama will come away from one or both of them with more delegates than Clinton. The post also goes on to note that no matter how you define "big state," these numbers hold relatively well.

As for the "can't close the deal" nonsense, since it is the system that doesn't allow anyone to close the deal, not the candidates. Because of the close proportionality of the delegate allocation system, nobody can close the deal in a tight race like this.

Neal Boortz is Crazy

We get Boortz's show here in Tallahassee and I happened to catch a bit of it the other day. My mp3 player was in my wife's car, Click and Clack were on NPR and I can't stand listening to "music" stations owned by Clear Channel or Cumulus, so I figured I'd catch a few minutes of what the other side had to say.

Boortz was on. It didn't take him 10 seconds to launch into a lie. He claimed that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were pursuing nationalized health care, something that both of their plans explicitly avoid. This is why so many liberals have complained about their plans, they aren't particularly liberal plans. That didn't stop Boortz from going crazy and talking about how health care in Canada sucks so bad.



The biggest problem with this is that Canada is not nationalized. It is mostly private care which about 70% of is paid for with public funds. "Nationalized" health care is a program owned wholly by the government. That isn't what Canada has and isn't what Clinton or Obama or any pretty much any other major Democrat is pursuing, either. Some are pursuing single-payer health care, but not nationalized. Also, Canada does better than the U.S. on pretty much every health statistic possible. Sure, they have some problems, but not nearly as many as we do and they pay a lot less per person for health care (as a percent of GDP) while getting significantly better results. For clarification, the countries that have nationalized health care, for the most part, beat both Canada and the U.S. in health statistics.

He claimed to know of a doctor who makes a living off of Canadian citizens who come to Florida for treatment because the treatment is so bad up north. This sounds like complete nonsense for several reasons (like a Reagan "welfare queen"), but most importantly is that my father is actually Canadian and he recently moved back to Canada because the care was better and cheaper than here in the U.S.

Boortz went nonpolitical for a while and let a guest (who was sane) talk for a while, then he went to commercial and I mercifully didn't have to listen any further, since I had arrived home. I did happen to catch Boortz air a commercial where he claimed credit ("That's the kind of guy I am!") for a promotional discount that I heard about two years ago on the Al Franken show. It's a discount the company offers on all kinds of shows, but Boortz claimed that it was his doing. He can't even be honest in commercials.