Story of the Day

The most talked about story on the Florida blogs Wednesday was the latest Q-poll numbers for Florida. Here's what people said...

Change in Tallahassee - Obama Polling Ahead In Florida

Pensito Review - Poll: Obama Pulls Ahead in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

becoming change - On to Florida, Obama Takes Over Lead...

Incertus (Brian) - Wow!

Blue Herald 2.0 - Poll: Obama Trumps McCain in Florida, Penn., Ohio

Flablog - Poll-o-Rama

Florida Kossacks - Good News for Barack Obama in WaPo ABC News Poll

FLA Politics (j2thaizzo) - Inside the Florida Quinnipiac numbers

The Road to the White House

What are Florida bloggers saying about the presidential race? Here are the top 5 posts from yesterday...

1. Blue Herald 2.0 - Post-Postmortem Post.

2. Smashed Frog - Vetting Caroline Kennedy.

3. Incertus (Brian) - Your vote belongs to you, yes...

4. Pushing Rope - Three Cheers For Katie Couric.

5. Politics1 - GORE ENDORSES OBAMA; McCAIN, OBAMA CLOSE IN NEVADA; MARYLAND CD-4 SPECIAL ON TUESDAY.

Obama Can Win Florida

This was originally posted as a comment to a different thread elsewhere, but I put a lot of thought into it, and I thought it was worth more than a comment.

I've lived in the Panhandle my whole life and it's not nearly as red as people seem to think. The majority in those counties are conservative, but they all have sizeable minority populations and progressive subcultures. He'll certainly win (and win big) in Leon, Gadsden and Jefferson (might win Wakulla as well) and could get as high as 40% in much of the rest of the Panhandle.

As for the rest of the state, there is a pretty significant Democratic voter registration advantage. Obama will win 80-90% of those Dems, the majority of independents, and 5-10% of Republicans. And keep in mind you'll see probably a 10-15% in black voter turnout and you might see a slight bump in Hispanic turnout -- and keep in mind Cubans are no longer the majority of Hispanics in Florida and Republicans are losing ground swiftly amongst Cubans anyway.

Here's how I think Obama wins Florida:

95%+ plus of black vote
65% of female vote
60-70% of non-Cuban Hispanic vote
40-60% of Cuban vote
60-70% of urban professional vote
90%+ of environmental vote
5-10% of Republican vote
40-60% of working class vote
60-70% of youth vote
5-10% of religious conservative vote
55-65% of independents

And keep in mind, all of the pro-Obama constituencies will have increased turnout (some of them significantly so, such as African-Americans and youth), while most of the anti-Obama constituencies will have decreased turnout. This invalidates any of the current models that are being used to predict the vote.

That being said, there is little evidence that Obama has much problem with white working class voters. Those arguments are largely based on Obama's matchup with Clinton. But he won't be facing Clinton in the general, he'll be facing McCain. And Obama and Clinton have a basically identical voting record on issues important to working class voters. McCain has a horrible track record. Obama will do fine with this group, even though he doesn't particularly need to.

McCain Hates Ethics

HuffPo:

On the stump, Sen. John McCain often cites his work tackling the excesses of disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff as evidence of his sturdy ethical compass.

A little-known document, however, shows that McCain may have taken steps to protect his Republican colleagues from the scope of his investigation.

In the 2006 Senate report concerning Abramoff's activities, which McCain spearheaded, the Arizona Republican conspicuously left out information detailing how Alabama Gov. Bob Riley was targeted by Abramoff's influence peddling scheme. Riley, a Republican, won election in November 2002, and was reelected in 2006.

In a December 2002 email obtained by the Huffington Post -- which McCain and his staff had access to prior to the issuance of his report -- Abramoff explains to an aide what he would like to see Riley do in return for the "help" he received from Abramoff's tribal clients.

An official with the Mississippi Choctaws "definitely wants Riley to shut down the Poarch Creek operation," Abramoff wrote, "including his announcing that anyone caught gambling there can't qualify for a state contract or something like that."

The note showed not only the reach of Abramoff, but raised questions about Riley's victory in what was the closest gubernatorial election in Alabama history.

And yet, despite the implications of the information, McCain and the Senate Indian Affairs Committee sat on the controversial portion of the email. According to an official familiar with the investigation, McCain also subsequently refused to make the email public after the report was released.

Good News

GOP Defending 9 of 10 Most Vulnerable Senate Seats. That's on top of defending 29 of 34 open seats in the House (possibly 30 of 35). Not a good year to be a Republican.